Dow Industrial Average
Interlude
25/March/2009 09:09 Filed in: Weekly
Column
It seems like this whole economic mess had its
beginnings in the 1970s. I suppose you could blame
it on the Viet Nam war but that probably is a gross
simplification. The music of that era seems
especially relevant today. Last week we began “The
War on Small” with the first line of a 1969 song:
War – What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!
This week as I was researching the background for Monday’s “Special Report - Prosperity Myth” the words of Simon and Garfunkel’s 1970 song, “Keep The Customer Satisfied” seemed to be completely fitting. As long as the Prosperity Myth functioned smoothly and everyone thought they were rich and secure, life was just a “Bobos in Paradise” to use the title of a David Brooks book, all that was required was to “Keep the Customer Satisfied.” So we got more and better stuff cheaper and cheaper. Hallelujah, material heaven here on earth!
However, it now seems that the recent worldwide love affair with President Barack Obama is beginning to show some stress. Basically two thirds of the way through his first 100 days, more and more comments and editorials, about not being up to the job, not ready for prime time, inept management, out of touch, gallows humor, punch drunk, a way to hell, and others are now being used. As his poll numbers deteriorate with all but the political class, it doesn’t seem that reassuring when Congress has only continued or enhanced its numskull performances dating from the Bush Administration. Then there is the debt situation; it is impossible to even keep track of the various trillions here, there, and everywhere.
Chorus:
It's The Same Old Story
Everywhere I Go,
I Get Slandered,
Libeled,
I Hear Words I Never Heard
In The Bible
The truth however, it is getting to the point where I want to use the words I never heard in the Bible to describe forcefully what I see happening.
And I'm One Step Ahead Of The Shoe Shine
Two Steps Away From The County Line
Just Trying To Keep My Customers Satisfied,
Satisfied.
It sure doesn’t seem there is much opportunity to even make it shining shoes today. And the other customers are drawing back, putting off things they would not have even considered seriously only a few months ago. But what should you do? The rules are changing every hour and no one seems to think that this type of chaotic change is an issue. The title of the Album and the soundtrack pretty much sums up March 25, 2009. We are all standing on a “Bridge Over Troubled Water.”
Deputy Sheriff Said To Me
Tell Me What You Come Here For, Boy.
You Better Get Your Bags And Flee.
You're In Trouble Boy,
And You're Heading Into More.
I’m So Tired, O, So Tired, Trying to Keep My Customers Satisfied.
If this isn’t the best song for today, I don’t know what other might qualify?
Read More...
This week as I was researching the background for Monday’s “Special Report - Prosperity Myth” the words of Simon and Garfunkel’s 1970 song, “Keep The Customer Satisfied” seemed to be completely fitting. As long as the Prosperity Myth functioned smoothly and everyone thought they were rich and secure, life was just a “Bobos in Paradise” to use the title of a David Brooks book, all that was required was to “Keep the Customer Satisfied.” So we got more and better stuff cheaper and cheaper. Hallelujah, material heaven here on earth!
However, it now seems that the recent worldwide love affair with President Barack Obama is beginning to show some stress. Basically two thirds of the way through his first 100 days, more and more comments and editorials, about not being up to the job, not ready for prime time, inept management, out of touch, gallows humor, punch drunk, a way to hell, and others are now being used. As his poll numbers deteriorate with all but the political class, it doesn’t seem that reassuring when Congress has only continued or enhanced its numskull performances dating from the Bush Administration. Then there is the debt situation; it is impossible to even keep track of the various trillions here, there, and everywhere.
Chorus:
It's The Same Old Story
Everywhere I Go,
I Get Slandered,
Libeled,
I Hear Words I Never Heard
In The Bible
The truth however, it is getting to the point where I want to use the words I never heard in the Bible to describe forcefully what I see happening.
And I'm One Step Ahead Of The Shoe Shine
Two Steps Away From The County Line
Just Trying To Keep My Customers Satisfied,
Satisfied.
It sure doesn’t seem there is much opportunity to even make it shining shoes today. And the other customers are drawing back, putting off things they would not have even considered seriously only a few months ago. But what should you do? The rules are changing every hour and no one seems to think that this type of chaotic change is an issue. The title of the Album and the soundtrack pretty much sums up March 25, 2009. We are all standing on a “Bridge Over Troubled Water.”
Deputy Sheriff Said To Me
Tell Me What You Come Here For, Boy.
You Better Get Your Bags And Flee.
You're In Trouble Boy,
And You're Heading Into More.
I’m So Tired, O, So Tired, Trying to Keep My Customers Satisfied.
If this isn’t the best song for today, I don’t know what other might qualify?
Read More...
Special Report - The Prosperity Myth
23/March/2009 12:07 Filed in: Special
Report
Special Report – The Prosperity Myth
The only thing we have to fear is reality itself. That reality is that much of America’s and the world’s recent wealth was based solely upon a Prosperity Myth. Most people are now afraid to look at reality. Is that stress, fear, or lack of mature coping skills?
The psychoanalysis definition of narcissism is: Self-centeredness arising from failure to distinguish the self from external objects, either in very young babies or as a feature of mental disorder.
What is the foundation of your life? For most people today that foundation is money. “Show me the money,” is the cultural ethic for today’s world. Reverence for God is where your created reality truly finds ultimate meaning, flowing from your created past, through the present, and into eternity. However pretty much all religious institutions now are based on a paradigm, not of amazing grace, but “give to get.”
Pretty much everyone hopes for security, especially future security. However, now seems to be all we have, the future has become an illusion, because the Federal Government is aggressively playing with the future in the hopes of maintaining a myth of sustainable prosperity.
Last week I was reading an article, which used as an illustration the following Monetary Base graphic from the Federal Reserve. That article focused upon the tremendous gain in the Monetary Base in the very recent past. What I found quite interesting was the distinct similarity between this illustration and the data I used two weeks ago in a weekly column, “Trilogy – The Dow’s Hidden Reality.”
Read More...
The only thing we have to fear is reality itself. That reality is that much of America’s and the world’s recent wealth was based solely upon a Prosperity Myth. Most people are now afraid to look at reality. Is that stress, fear, or lack of mature coping skills?
The psychoanalysis definition of narcissism is: Self-centeredness arising from failure to distinguish the self from external objects, either in very young babies or as a feature of mental disorder.
What is the foundation of your life? For most people today that foundation is money. “Show me the money,” is the cultural ethic for today’s world. Reverence for God is where your created reality truly finds ultimate meaning, flowing from your created past, through the present, and into eternity. However pretty much all religious institutions now are based on a paradigm, not of amazing grace, but “give to get.”
Pretty much everyone hopes for security, especially future security. However, now seems to be all we have, the future has become an illusion, because the Federal Government is aggressively playing with the future in the hopes of maintaining a myth of sustainable prosperity.
Last week I was reading an article, which used as an illustration the following Monetary Base graphic from the Federal Reserve. That article focused upon the tremendous gain in the Monetary Base in the very recent past. What I found quite interesting was the distinct similarity between this illustration and the data I used two weeks ago in a weekly column, “Trilogy – The Dow’s Hidden Reality.”
Read More...
Trilogy: Two-headed Coins, The Dow’s Hidden Reality, Sufficient Grace
11/March/2009 10:42 Filed in: Weekly
Column
Blame it on climate change. Mostly the economic
climate, but also a March snowfall, and plunging
temperatures that Tuesday night reached 8 degrees
(-13C), with so far 3 record cold nights in a row.
This week we have a double length unity in
diversity article, that looks in diverse ways at
the economic climate, and leads one to still
believe that spring always follows the winter, even
if today winter looks all too real.
Last Thursday evening was one of the most difficult times I can remember in a very long time. For the most part, I try to look at the world as a realistic optimist. After the Dow fell 300 points and played around 6500, I had to admit that things are getting seriously serious. That number was a thousand points lower than my somewhat flippant prediction of 7500 by Inauguration Day, which really didn’t happen until Economic Stimulus Day. But it was also only a thousand points above the 5500 level predicted by a real financial planner I talked with during a holiday office thing. If things continue on this current path the Dow could be at 5500 by April Fools Day.
Times are serious, and it is time for the folks to get serious also, that I realized meant the pointing finger also had three pointing back at me.
Most of the economic news now uses the 1982 recession as sort of a benchmark for where we are now. In that light 1982 was a life-changing period in my life, which basically has led me to where I am today. Considering all that has happened since that time, in the transcendent eternal sense, I am one of the more wealthy people in the world. Materially and economically things really are not all that much different than back then, maybe even quantitatively below that recessionary level.
In about the middle of the wonderful year of 1982, my folder of job rejection letters reached the thickness of maybe an inch and a half. In the year and a few months since I had been somewhat forcibly removed from corporate America, the only real potential opportunities had come from Long Beach, California, and Houston, Texas, both on my bottom ten places to live in the United States.
The amazing thing is just a few months before my trip to the unemployment office; my cute, corporate headhunter had told me, that with my qualifications I was probably one of the top six candidates in the country in my field. That all changed when new President Ronald Reagan, basically shut down the EPA and put all the new federal hazardous waste regulations on hold.
That pile of rejection letters changed my life; in conjunction with a phone call I received from one business manager, who instead of sending me another rejection letter decided to give me a call. The call came from a sales manager of a copier sales company where I had applied for an entry-level sales position. At that time copier sales people were required to make at least forty external cold calls per day, as well as follow up on any other slim leads that may have been generated by some other means.
The reason that this manager decided to give me a call was because, as we determined, he had been in the class just before me at the Army Security Agency Officers Class at Ft. Devens, Massachusetts. He stated that he had taken that copier sales job (perhaps in the 1973-75 recession) and had just gotten to the point where he could relax a bit, and that there was no way he was ever going to hire anyone that might threaten that long sought security, which he could easily discern from my resume.
Read More...
Last Thursday evening was one of the most difficult times I can remember in a very long time. For the most part, I try to look at the world as a realistic optimist. After the Dow fell 300 points and played around 6500, I had to admit that things are getting seriously serious. That number was a thousand points lower than my somewhat flippant prediction of 7500 by Inauguration Day, which really didn’t happen until Economic Stimulus Day. But it was also only a thousand points above the 5500 level predicted by a real financial planner I talked with during a holiday office thing. If things continue on this current path the Dow could be at 5500 by April Fools Day.
Times are serious, and it is time for the folks to get serious also, that I realized meant the pointing finger also had three pointing back at me.
Most of the economic news now uses the 1982 recession as sort of a benchmark for where we are now. In that light 1982 was a life-changing period in my life, which basically has led me to where I am today. Considering all that has happened since that time, in the transcendent eternal sense, I am one of the more wealthy people in the world. Materially and economically things really are not all that much different than back then, maybe even quantitatively below that recessionary level.
In about the middle of the wonderful year of 1982, my folder of job rejection letters reached the thickness of maybe an inch and a half. In the year and a few months since I had been somewhat forcibly removed from corporate America, the only real potential opportunities had come from Long Beach, California, and Houston, Texas, both on my bottom ten places to live in the United States.
The amazing thing is just a few months before my trip to the unemployment office; my cute, corporate headhunter had told me, that with my qualifications I was probably one of the top six candidates in the country in my field. That all changed when new President Ronald Reagan, basically shut down the EPA and put all the new federal hazardous waste regulations on hold.
That pile of rejection letters changed my life; in conjunction with a phone call I received from one business manager, who instead of sending me another rejection letter decided to give me a call. The call came from a sales manager of a copier sales company where I had applied for an entry-level sales position. At that time copier sales people were required to make at least forty external cold calls per day, as well as follow up on any other slim leads that may have been generated by some other means.
The reason that this manager decided to give me a call was because, as we determined, he had been in the class just before me at the Army Security Agency Officers Class at Ft. Devens, Massachusetts. He stated that he had taken that copier sales job (perhaps in the 1973-75 recession) and had just gotten to the point where he could relax a bit, and that there was no way he was ever going to hire anyone that might threaten that long sought security, which he could easily discern from my resume.
Read More...
Betting on a real depression?
05/March/2009 11:06 Filed in: Oikos
Thoughts | Web News
What are the odds of a real depression?
Yesterday an article in the Wall Street Journal put that probability at about 20%. Is that good news or bad news, I assume that is truly an individual determination?
What Are the Odds of a Depression? by Robert J. Barrow, examines just that possibility. The report is based upon looking at 251 stock-market crashes from around the world dating back to 1870. When you factor out those associated with major wars, the current Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts do not apply, you are left with 209 crashes and 59 depressions. Defining a minor depression as at least a 10% decrease in GDP, and a major depression of a 25% decrease in GDP, crunching the numbers, resulted in the 20% number and the 2% probability respectively. The details are well spelled out in the article, as well as the title of the working paper source document.
This somewhat intertwines with thoughts in yesterday’s article which generally ties true wealth directly to stock market Dow Jones Industrial Averages. The reference point to which most recently relates, in both our article and the Barrow depression data, is to the recession of 1982 when GDP fell 3%.
Read More...
Yesterday an article in the Wall Street Journal put that probability at about 20%. Is that good news or bad news, I assume that is truly an individual determination?
What Are the Odds of a Depression? by Robert J. Barrow, examines just that possibility. The report is based upon looking at 251 stock-market crashes from around the world dating back to 1870. When you factor out those associated with major wars, the current Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts do not apply, you are left with 209 crashes and 59 depressions. Defining a minor depression as at least a 10% decrease in GDP, and a major depression of a 25% decrease in GDP, crunching the numbers, resulted in the 20% number and the 2% probability respectively. The details are well spelled out in the article, as well as the title of the working paper source document.
This somewhat intertwines with thoughts in yesterday’s article which generally ties true wealth directly to stock market Dow Jones Industrial Averages. The reference point to which most recently relates, in both our article and the Barrow depression data, is to the recession of 1982 when GDP fell 3%.
Read More...