Mar 2009
March 29th – God's Adopted Children
29/March/2009 06:04 Filed in: Heidleberg
Catechism
Lord's Day
13
33. Q. Why is He called God's only begotten Son, since we also are children of God?
A. Because Christ alone is the eternal, natural Son of God.[1] We, however, are children of God by adoption, through grace, for Christ's sake.[2]
[1] John 1:1-3, 14, 18; 3:16; Rom. 8:32; Heb. 1; I John 4:9. [2] John 1:12; Rom. 8:14-17; Gal. 4:6; Eph. 1:5, 6.
34. Q. Why do you call Him our Lord?
A. Because He has ransomed us, body and soul,[1] from all our sins, not with silver or gold but with His precious blood,[2] and has freed us from all the power of the devil to make us His own possession.[3]
[1] I Cor. 6:20; I Tim. 2:5, 6. [2] I Peter 1:18, 19. [3] Col. 1:13, 14; Heb. 2:14, 15.
33. Q. Why is He called God's only begotten Son, since we also are children of God?
A. Because Christ alone is the eternal, natural Son of God.[1] We, however, are children of God by adoption, through grace, for Christ's sake.[2]
[1] John 1:1-3, 14, 18; 3:16; Rom. 8:32; Heb. 1; I John 4:9. [2] John 1:12; Rom. 8:14-17; Gal. 4:6; Eph. 1:5, 6.
34. Q. Why do you call Him our Lord?
A. Because He has ransomed us, body and soul,[1] from all our sins, not with silver or gold but with His precious blood,[2] and has freed us from all the power of the devil to make us His own possession.[3]
[1] I Cor. 6:20; I Tim. 2:5, 6. [2] I Peter 1:18, 19. [3] Col. 1:13, 14; Heb. 2:14, 15.
Interlude
25/March/2009 09:09 Filed in: Weekly
Column
It seems like this whole economic mess had its
beginnings in the 1970s. I suppose you could blame
it on the Viet Nam war but that probably is a gross
simplification. The music of that era seems
especially relevant today. Last week we began “The
War on Small” with the first line of a 1969 song:
War – What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!
This week as I was researching the background for Monday’s “Special Report - Prosperity Myth” the words of Simon and Garfunkel’s 1970 song, “Keep The Customer Satisfied” seemed to be completely fitting. As long as the Prosperity Myth functioned smoothly and everyone thought they were rich and secure, life was just a “Bobos in Paradise” to use the title of a David Brooks book, all that was required was to “Keep the Customer Satisfied.” So we got more and better stuff cheaper and cheaper. Hallelujah, material heaven here on earth!
However, it now seems that the recent worldwide love affair with President Barack Obama is beginning to show some stress. Basically two thirds of the way through his first 100 days, more and more comments and editorials, about not being up to the job, not ready for prime time, inept management, out of touch, gallows humor, punch drunk, a way to hell, and others are now being used. As his poll numbers deteriorate with all but the political class, it doesn’t seem that reassuring when Congress has only continued or enhanced its numskull performances dating from the Bush Administration. Then there is the debt situation; it is impossible to even keep track of the various trillions here, there, and everywhere.
Chorus:
It's The Same Old Story
Everywhere I Go,
I Get Slandered,
Libeled,
I Hear Words I Never Heard
In The Bible
The truth however, it is getting to the point where I want to use the words I never heard in the Bible to describe forcefully what I see happening.
And I'm One Step Ahead Of The Shoe Shine
Two Steps Away From The County Line
Just Trying To Keep My Customers Satisfied,
Satisfied.
It sure doesn’t seem there is much opportunity to even make it shining shoes today. And the other customers are drawing back, putting off things they would not have even considered seriously only a few months ago. But what should you do? The rules are changing every hour and no one seems to think that this type of chaotic change is an issue. The title of the Album and the soundtrack pretty much sums up March 25, 2009. We are all standing on a “Bridge Over Troubled Water.”
Deputy Sheriff Said To Me
Tell Me What You Come Here For, Boy.
You Better Get Your Bags And Flee.
You're In Trouble Boy,
And You're Heading Into More.
I’m So Tired, O, So Tired, Trying to Keep My Customers Satisfied.
If this isn’t the best song for today, I don’t know what other might qualify?
Read More...
This week as I was researching the background for Monday’s “Special Report - Prosperity Myth” the words of Simon and Garfunkel’s 1970 song, “Keep The Customer Satisfied” seemed to be completely fitting. As long as the Prosperity Myth functioned smoothly and everyone thought they were rich and secure, life was just a “Bobos in Paradise” to use the title of a David Brooks book, all that was required was to “Keep the Customer Satisfied.” So we got more and better stuff cheaper and cheaper. Hallelujah, material heaven here on earth!
However, it now seems that the recent worldwide love affair with President Barack Obama is beginning to show some stress. Basically two thirds of the way through his first 100 days, more and more comments and editorials, about not being up to the job, not ready for prime time, inept management, out of touch, gallows humor, punch drunk, a way to hell, and others are now being used. As his poll numbers deteriorate with all but the political class, it doesn’t seem that reassuring when Congress has only continued or enhanced its numskull performances dating from the Bush Administration. Then there is the debt situation; it is impossible to even keep track of the various trillions here, there, and everywhere.
Chorus:
It's The Same Old Story
Everywhere I Go,
I Get Slandered,
Libeled,
I Hear Words I Never Heard
In The Bible
The truth however, it is getting to the point where I want to use the words I never heard in the Bible to describe forcefully what I see happening.
And I'm One Step Ahead Of The Shoe Shine
Two Steps Away From The County Line
Just Trying To Keep My Customers Satisfied,
Satisfied.
It sure doesn’t seem there is much opportunity to even make it shining shoes today. And the other customers are drawing back, putting off things they would not have even considered seriously only a few months ago. But what should you do? The rules are changing every hour and no one seems to think that this type of chaotic change is an issue. The title of the Album and the soundtrack pretty much sums up March 25, 2009. We are all standing on a “Bridge Over Troubled Water.”
Deputy Sheriff Said To Me
Tell Me What You Come Here For, Boy.
You Better Get Your Bags And Flee.
You're In Trouble Boy,
And You're Heading Into More.
I’m So Tired, O, So Tired, Trying to Keep My Customers Satisfied.
If this isn’t the best song for today, I don’t know what other might qualify?
Read More...
Special Report - The Prosperity Myth
23/March/2009 12:07 Filed in: Special
Report
Special Report – The Prosperity Myth
The only thing we have to fear is reality itself. That reality is that much of America’s and the world’s recent wealth was based solely upon a Prosperity Myth. Most people are now afraid to look at reality. Is that stress, fear, or lack of mature coping skills?
The psychoanalysis definition of narcissism is: Self-centeredness arising from failure to distinguish the self from external objects, either in very young babies or as a feature of mental disorder.
What is the foundation of your life? For most people today that foundation is money. “Show me the money,” is the cultural ethic for today’s world. Reverence for God is where your created reality truly finds ultimate meaning, flowing from your created past, through the present, and into eternity. However pretty much all religious institutions now are based on a paradigm, not of amazing grace, but “give to get.”
Pretty much everyone hopes for security, especially future security. However, now seems to be all we have, the future has become an illusion, because the Federal Government is aggressively playing with the future in the hopes of maintaining a myth of sustainable prosperity.
Last week I was reading an article, which used as an illustration the following Monetary Base graphic from the Federal Reserve. That article focused upon the tremendous gain in the Monetary Base in the very recent past. What I found quite interesting was the distinct similarity between this illustration and the data I used two weeks ago in a weekly column, “Trilogy – The Dow’s Hidden Reality.”
Read More...
The only thing we have to fear is reality itself. That reality is that much of America’s and the world’s recent wealth was based solely upon a Prosperity Myth. Most people are now afraid to look at reality. Is that stress, fear, or lack of mature coping skills?
The psychoanalysis definition of narcissism is: Self-centeredness arising from failure to distinguish the self from external objects, either in very young babies or as a feature of mental disorder.
What is the foundation of your life? For most people today that foundation is money. “Show me the money,” is the cultural ethic for today’s world. Reverence for God is where your created reality truly finds ultimate meaning, flowing from your created past, through the present, and into eternity. However pretty much all religious institutions now are based on a paradigm, not of amazing grace, but “give to get.”
Pretty much everyone hopes for security, especially future security. However, now seems to be all we have, the future has become an illusion, because the Federal Government is aggressively playing with the future in the hopes of maintaining a myth of sustainable prosperity.
Last week I was reading an article, which used as an illustration the following Monetary Base graphic from the Federal Reserve. That article focused upon the tremendous gain in the Monetary Base in the very recent past. What I found quite interesting was the distinct similarity between this illustration and the data I used two weeks ago in a weekly column, “Trilogy – The Dow’s Hidden Reality.”
Read More...
March 22nd – Christ & Christians
21/March/2009 18:24 Filed in: Heidleberg
Catechism
Lord's Day 12
31. Q. Why is He called Christ, that is, Anointed?
A. Because He has been ordained by God the Father, and anointed with the Holy Spirit,[1] to be our chief Prophet and Teacher,[2] who has fully revealed to us the secret counsel and will of God concerning our redemption;[3] our only High Priest,[4] who by the one sacrifice of His body has redeemed us,[5] and who continually intercedes for us before the Father;[6] and our eternal King,[7] who governs us by His Word and Spirit, and who defends and preserves us in the redemption obtained for us.[8]
[1] Ps. 45:7 (Heb. 1:9); Is. 61:1 (Luke 4:18; Luke 3:21, 22. [2] Deut. 18:15 (Acts 3:22). [3] John 1:18; 15:15. [4] Ps. 110:4 (Heb. 7:17). [5] Heb. 9:12; 10:11-14. [6] Rom. 8:34; Heb. 9:24; I John 2:1. [7] Zach. 9:9 (Matt. 21:5); Luke 1:33. [8] Matt. 28:18-20; John 10:28; Rev. 12:10, 11.
32. Q. Why are you called a Christian?
A. Because I am a member of Christ by faith[1] and thus share in His anointing,[2] so that I may as prophet confess His Name,[3] as priest present myself a living sacrifice of thankfulness to Him,[4] and as king fight with a free and good conscience against sin and the devil in this life,[5] and hereafter reign with Him eternally over all creatures.[6]
[1] I Cor. 12:12-27. [2] Joel 2:28 (Acts 2:17); I John 2:27. [3] Matt. 10:32; Rom 10:9, 10; Heb. 13:15. [4] Rom. 12:1; I Pet. 2:5, 9. [5] Gal. 5:16, 17; Eph. 6:11; I Tim. 1:18, 19. [6] Matt. 25:34; II Tim. 2:12.
31. Q. Why is He called Christ, that is, Anointed?
A. Because He has been ordained by God the Father, and anointed with the Holy Spirit,[1] to be our chief Prophet and Teacher,[2] who has fully revealed to us the secret counsel and will of God concerning our redemption;[3] our only High Priest,[4] who by the one sacrifice of His body has redeemed us,[5] and who continually intercedes for us before the Father;[6] and our eternal King,[7] who governs us by His Word and Spirit, and who defends and preserves us in the redemption obtained for us.[8]
[1] Ps. 45:7 (Heb. 1:9); Is. 61:1 (Luke 4:18; Luke 3:21, 22. [2] Deut. 18:15 (Acts 3:22). [3] John 1:18; 15:15. [4] Ps. 110:4 (Heb. 7:17). [5] Heb. 9:12; 10:11-14. [6] Rom. 8:34; Heb. 9:24; I John 2:1. [7] Zach. 9:9 (Matt. 21:5); Luke 1:33. [8] Matt. 28:18-20; John 10:28; Rev. 12:10, 11.
32. Q. Why are you called a Christian?
A. Because I am a member of Christ by faith[1] and thus share in His anointing,[2] so that I may as prophet confess His Name,[3] as priest present myself a living sacrifice of thankfulness to Him,[4] and as king fight with a free and good conscience against sin and the devil in this life,[5] and hereafter reign with Him eternally over all creatures.[6]
[1] I Cor. 12:12-27. [2] Joel 2:28 (Acts 2:17); I John 2:27. [3] Matt. 10:32; Rom 10:9, 10; Heb. 13:15. [4] Rom. 12:1; I Pet. 2:5, 9. [5] Gal. 5:16, 17; Eph. 6:11; I Tim. 1:18, 19. [6] Matt. 25:34; II Tim. 2:12.
The War on Small
18/March/2009 16:42 Filed in: Weekly
Column
War – What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!
So goes the first line of the 1969 song by Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong and released by Motown - first by the Temptations and then by Edwin Starr in 1970. The edgy Starr rendition is what we are most familiar, the prior Temptations recording is somewhat more refined if a true war protest song can ever be refined. War was also recorded by Bruce Springsteen in the 1980s. All three versions are available on iTunes.
Vietnam was called a war, so was Iraq, and Afghanistan. Less we forget, well, actually we want to forget, there still is the War on Terror, refocused by the self proclaimed more civilized Obama Administration into some security or insecurity measures against a few people who don’t agree with American values.
Have you ever heard of the War on Small? Of course the War on Small begs the question small what, or who. Yep! All of the above, but for the purposes of this week’s article we will try to focus upon small enterprise.
Did you miss the news on President Obama’s small business initiative sometime Monday? By Tuesday it was not anywhere to be found on the leading news feeds? The Wall Street Journal’s weekly Small Business Update email had one article that is worth reading. Basically it says that in the diverse small business universe, again the President was long on hyperbole and short on substance. The only meaningful content comes only to the small portion of small businesses that use SBA loan guarantees.
Yippy – Skippy!
Read More...
So goes the first line of the 1969 song by Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong and released by Motown - first by the Temptations and then by Edwin Starr in 1970. The edgy Starr rendition is what we are most familiar, the prior Temptations recording is somewhat more refined if a true war protest song can ever be refined. War was also recorded by Bruce Springsteen in the 1980s. All three versions are available on iTunes.
Vietnam was called a war, so was Iraq, and Afghanistan. Less we forget, well, actually we want to forget, there still is the War on Terror, refocused by the self proclaimed more civilized Obama Administration into some security or insecurity measures against a few people who don’t agree with American values.
Have you ever heard of the War on Small? Of course the War on Small begs the question small what, or who. Yep! All of the above, but for the purposes of this week’s article we will try to focus upon small enterprise.
Did you miss the news on President Obama’s small business initiative sometime Monday? By Tuesday it was not anywhere to be found on the leading news feeds? The Wall Street Journal’s weekly Small Business Update email had one article that is worth reading. Basically it says that in the diverse small business universe, again the President was long on hyperbole and short on substance. The only meaningful content comes only to the small portion of small businesses that use SBA loan guarantees.
Yippy – Skippy!
Read More...
March 15th – Jesus is Savior
14/March/2009 18:49 Filed in: Heidleberg
Catechism
Lord's Day
11
29. Q. Why is the Son of God called Jesus, that is, Saviour?
A. Because He saves us from all our sins,[1] and because salvation is not to be sought or found in anyone else.[2]
[1] Matt. 1:21; Heb. 7:25. [2] Is. 43:11; John 15:4, 5; Acts 4:11, 12; I Tim. 2:5.
30. Q. Do those believe in the only Saviour Jesus who seek their salvation and well-being from saints, in themselves, or anywhere else?
A. No. Though they boast of Him in words, they in fact deny the only Saviour Jesus.[1] For one of two things must be true: either Jesus is not a complete Saviour, or those who by true faith accept this Saviour must find in Him all that is necessary for their salvation.[2]
[1] I Cor. 1:12, 13; Gal. 5:4. [2] Col. 1:19, 20; 2:10; I John 1:7.
29. Q. Why is the Son of God called Jesus, that is, Saviour?
A. Because He saves us from all our sins,[1] and because salvation is not to be sought or found in anyone else.[2]
[1] Matt. 1:21; Heb. 7:25. [2] Is. 43:11; John 15:4, 5; Acts 4:11, 12; I Tim. 2:5.
30. Q. Do those believe in the only Saviour Jesus who seek their salvation and well-being from saints, in themselves, or anywhere else?
A. No. Though they boast of Him in words, they in fact deny the only Saviour Jesus.[1] For one of two things must be true: either Jesus is not a complete Saviour, or those who by true faith accept this Saviour must find in Him all that is necessary for their salvation.[2]
[1] I Cor. 1:12, 13; Gal. 5:4. [2] Col. 1:19, 20; 2:10; I John 1:7.
Obama's Stimulus Keynes Model is Questioned
12/March/2009 11:43 Filed in: Oikos
Thoughts | Web News
Into our valley of economic turpitude rode
President Obama’s itty-bitty team of economic
knights to tell us with the passage of the stimulus
plan the City of Eternal Prosperity was just a
steep monetary deficit climb away. To reach that
city they offered us some Keynesian economic
projections of continual prosperity to come. They
then supplied us all with rose colored glasses,
whereby we could see through the dust of enterprise
destruction and gain a vision of this summit
Auda-City of Hope.
People generally and Americans specifically are really pretty skeptical of evangelists of any fashion, hence many refused the put-on and decided they would continue to struggle slowly through the haze. As reported in a Wall Street Journal today in Old Europe Is Right on Stimulus a team of four trans-Atlantic economists, two Americans and two Germans questioned Obama’s Old Keynesian projections with New Keynesian projections. Those projections showed not an eternal plateau of stable economic growth, but a real that Auda-City was not near as high as the itty-bitty knights predicted, and furthermore there was another very deep valley on the other side of the hill. A link to that New Keynesian versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers paper is found under our Resources Tab.
Not having that much formal education in economics it is interesting to see the similarities between two of our Business Ecology Growth Curves below as they relate to the projections of the Old Keynesian Obama knights and the New Keynesian study.
Read More...
People generally and Americans specifically are really pretty skeptical of evangelists of any fashion, hence many refused the put-on and decided they would continue to struggle slowly through the haze. As reported in a Wall Street Journal today in Old Europe Is Right on Stimulus a team of four trans-Atlantic economists, two Americans and two Germans questioned Obama’s Old Keynesian projections with New Keynesian projections. Those projections showed not an eternal plateau of stable economic growth, but a real that Auda-City was not near as high as the itty-bitty knights predicted, and furthermore there was another very deep valley on the other side of the hill. A link to that New Keynesian versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers paper is found under our Resources Tab.
Not having that much formal education in economics it is interesting to see the similarities between two of our Business Ecology Growth Curves below as they relate to the projections of the Old Keynesian Obama knights and the New Keynesian study.
Read More...
Trilogy: Two-headed Coins, The Dow’s Hidden Reality, Sufficient Grace
11/March/2009 10:42 Filed in: Weekly
Column
Blame it on climate change. Mostly the economic
climate, but also a March snowfall, and plunging
temperatures that Tuesday night reached 8 degrees
(-13C), with so far 3 record cold nights in a row.
This week we have a double length unity in
diversity article, that looks in diverse ways at
the economic climate, and leads one to still
believe that spring always follows the winter, even
if today winter looks all too real.
Last Thursday evening was one of the most difficult times I can remember in a very long time. For the most part, I try to look at the world as a realistic optimist. After the Dow fell 300 points and played around 6500, I had to admit that things are getting seriously serious. That number was a thousand points lower than my somewhat flippant prediction of 7500 by Inauguration Day, which really didn’t happen until Economic Stimulus Day. But it was also only a thousand points above the 5500 level predicted by a real financial planner I talked with during a holiday office thing. If things continue on this current path the Dow could be at 5500 by April Fools Day.
Times are serious, and it is time for the folks to get serious also, that I realized meant the pointing finger also had three pointing back at me.
Most of the economic news now uses the 1982 recession as sort of a benchmark for where we are now. In that light 1982 was a life-changing period in my life, which basically has led me to where I am today. Considering all that has happened since that time, in the transcendent eternal sense, I am one of the more wealthy people in the world. Materially and economically things really are not all that much different than back then, maybe even quantitatively below that recessionary level.
In about the middle of the wonderful year of 1982, my folder of job rejection letters reached the thickness of maybe an inch and a half. In the year and a few months since I had been somewhat forcibly removed from corporate America, the only real potential opportunities had come from Long Beach, California, and Houston, Texas, both on my bottom ten places to live in the United States.
The amazing thing is just a few months before my trip to the unemployment office; my cute, corporate headhunter had told me, that with my qualifications I was probably one of the top six candidates in the country in my field. That all changed when new President Ronald Reagan, basically shut down the EPA and put all the new federal hazardous waste regulations on hold.
That pile of rejection letters changed my life; in conjunction with a phone call I received from one business manager, who instead of sending me another rejection letter decided to give me a call. The call came from a sales manager of a copier sales company where I had applied for an entry-level sales position. At that time copier sales people were required to make at least forty external cold calls per day, as well as follow up on any other slim leads that may have been generated by some other means.
The reason that this manager decided to give me a call was because, as we determined, he had been in the class just before me at the Army Security Agency Officers Class at Ft. Devens, Massachusetts. He stated that he had taken that copier sales job (perhaps in the 1973-75 recession) and had just gotten to the point where he could relax a bit, and that there was no way he was ever going to hire anyone that might threaten that long sought security, which he could easily discern from my resume.
Read More...
Last Thursday evening was one of the most difficult times I can remember in a very long time. For the most part, I try to look at the world as a realistic optimist. After the Dow fell 300 points and played around 6500, I had to admit that things are getting seriously serious. That number was a thousand points lower than my somewhat flippant prediction of 7500 by Inauguration Day, which really didn’t happen until Economic Stimulus Day. But it was also only a thousand points above the 5500 level predicted by a real financial planner I talked with during a holiday office thing. If things continue on this current path the Dow could be at 5500 by April Fools Day.
Times are serious, and it is time for the folks to get serious also, that I realized meant the pointing finger also had three pointing back at me.
Most of the economic news now uses the 1982 recession as sort of a benchmark for where we are now. In that light 1982 was a life-changing period in my life, which basically has led me to where I am today. Considering all that has happened since that time, in the transcendent eternal sense, I am one of the more wealthy people in the world. Materially and economically things really are not all that much different than back then, maybe even quantitatively below that recessionary level.
In about the middle of the wonderful year of 1982, my folder of job rejection letters reached the thickness of maybe an inch and a half. In the year and a few months since I had been somewhat forcibly removed from corporate America, the only real potential opportunities had come from Long Beach, California, and Houston, Texas, both on my bottom ten places to live in the United States.
The amazing thing is just a few months before my trip to the unemployment office; my cute, corporate headhunter had told me, that with my qualifications I was probably one of the top six candidates in the country in my field. That all changed when new President Ronald Reagan, basically shut down the EPA and put all the new federal hazardous waste regulations on hold.
That pile of rejection letters changed my life; in conjunction with a phone call I received from one business manager, who instead of sending me another rejection letter decided to give me a call. The call came from a sales manager of a copier sales company where I had applied for an entry-level sales position. At that time copier sales people were required to make at least forty external cold calls per day, as well as follow up on any other slim leads that may have been generated by some other means.
The reason that this manager decided to give me a call was because, as we determined, he had been in the class just before me at the Army Security Agency Officers Class at Ft. Devens, Massachusetts. He stated that he had taken that copier sales job (perhaps in the 1973-75 recession) and had just gotten to the point where he could relax a bit, and that there was no way he was ever going to hire anyone that might threaten that long sought security, which he could easily discern from my resume.
Read More...
March 8th – God's providence
07/March/2009 15:33 Filed in: Heidleberg
Catechism
Lord's Day
10
27. Q. What do you understand by the providence of God?
A. God's providence is His almighty and ever present power,[1] whereby, as with His hand, He still upholds heaven and earth and all creatures,[2] and so governs them that leaf and blade, rain and drought, fruitful and barren years, food and drink, health and sickness, riches and poverty,[3] indeed, all things, come not by chance[4] but by His fatherly hand.[5]
[1] Jer. 23:23, 24; Acts 17:24-28. [2] Heb. 1:3. [3] Jer. 5:24; Acts 14:15-17; John 9:3; Prov. 22:2. [4] Prov. 16:33. [5] Matt. 10:29.
28. Q. What does it benefit us to know that God has created all things and still upholds them by His providence?
A. We can be patient in adversity,[1] thankful in prosperity,[2] and with a view to the future we can have a firm confidence in our faithful God and Father that no creature shall separate us from His love;[3] for all creatures are so completely in His hand that without His will they cannot so much as move.[4]
[1] Job. 1:21, 22; Ps. 39:10; James 1:3. [2] Deut. 8:10; I Thess. 5:18. [3] Ps. 55:22; Rom. 5:3-5; 8:38, 39. [4] Job 1:12; 2:6; Prov. 21:1; Acts 17:24-28.
27. Q. What do you understand by the providence of God?
A. God's providence is His almighty and ever present power,[1] whereby, as with His hand, He still upholds heaven and earth and all creatures,[2] and so governs them that leaf and blade, rain and drought, fruitful and barren years, food and drink, health and sickness, riches and poverty,[3] indeed, all things, come not by chance[4] but by His fatherly hand.[5]
[1] Jer. 23:23, 24; Acts 17:24-28. [2] Heb. 1:3. [3] Jer. 5:24; Acts 14:15-17; John 9:3; Prov. 22:2. [4] Prov. 16:33. [5] Matt. 10:29.
28. Q. What does it benefit us to know that God has created all things and still upholds them by His providence?
A. We can be patient in adversity,[1] thankful in prosperity,[2] and with a view to the future we can have a firm confidence in our faithful God and Father that no creature shall separate us from His love;[3] for all creatures are so completely in His hand that without His will they cannot so much as move.[4]
[1] Job. 1:21, 22; Ps. 39:10; James 1:3. [2] Deut. 8:10; I Thess. 5:18. [3] Ps. 55:22; Rom. 5:3-5; 8:38, 39. [4] Job 1:12; 2:6; Prov. 21:1; Acts 17:24-28.
Betting on a real depression?
05/March/2009 11:06 Filed in: Oikos
Thoughts | Web News
What are the odds of a real depression?
Yesterday an article in the Wall Street Journal put that probability at about 20%. Is that good news or bad news, I assume that is truly an individual determination?
What Are the Odds of a Depression? by Robert J. Barrow, examines just that possibility. The report is based upon looking at 251 stock-market crashes from around the world dating back to 1870. When you factor out those associated with major wars, the current Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts do not apply, you are left with 209 crashes and 59 depressions. Defining a minor depression as at least a 10% decrease in GDP, and a major depression of a 25% decrease in GDP, crunching the numbers, resulted in the 20% number and the 2% probability respectively. The details are well spelled out in the article, as well as the title of the working paper source document.
This somewhat intertwines with thoughts in yesterday’s article which generally ties true wealth directly to stock market Dow Jones Industrial Averages. The reference point to which most recently relates, in both our article and the Barrow depression data, is to the recession of 1982 when GDP fell 3%.
Read More...
Yesterday an article in the Wall Street Journal put that probability at about 20%. Is that good news or bad news, I assume that is truly an individual determination?
What Are the Odds of a Depression? by Robert J. Barrow, examines just that possibility. The report is based upon looking at 251 stock-market crashes from around the world dating back to 1870. When you factor out those associated with major wars, the current Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts do not apply, you are left with 209 crashes and 59 depressions. Defining a minor depression as at least a 10% decrease in GDP, and a major depression of a 25% decrease in GDP, crunching the numbers, resulted in the 20% number and the 2% probability respectively. The details are well spelled out in the article, as well as the title of the working paper source document.
This somewhat intertwines with thoughts in yesterday’s article which generally ties true wealth directly to stock market Dow Jones Industrial Averages. The reference point to which most recently relates, in both our article and the Barrow depression data, is to the recession of 1982 when GDP fell 3%.
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The faux pas presumption paradigm
04/March/2009 10:44 Filed in: Weekly
Column
The Noise on the Western Front increased
considerably in the past week. The essential reason
for that increase is that we all continue to
believe in a faux pas presumption paradigm. That
belief assumes we have within ourselves, within our
individual and collective intellect, the potential
to make the world a better place and to save
ourselves from future destruction.
That is what the Bible calls basically the “unforgivable sin.” Of course we really don’t believe in sin, especially within ourselves, so when it all falls apart, we are completely without the discernment to understand what is and has happened. If that is not a classic faux pas, I do not know what is.
So when President Obama spoke a week ago Tuesday, the speech was so filled with platitudes and generalities that really there was nothing of substance which one might disagree. Furthermore there was a complete disconnect from the outlined shining city on a hill, contrasted with the reality quagmire in the valley of current remorse.
On Thursday in outlining his budget for the next fiscal year, the President kicked up his liberal agenda more than a notch or two, essentially turning his vision of New Deal programs into prescriptions for financial disaster to those who believe in any concept of free market enterprise. From that budget outline it is clear that his Administration wants to turn this crisis-catastrophe into an opportunity to completely make free market enterprise subservient to centralized government planning and control.
On Saturday at the Conservative Political Action Conference, talk show personality Rush Limbaugh, by adding an hour to a programmed twenty-minute speech turned a hoped thoughtful rebuttal to the Obama vision for America, into the opportunity for about an hour nap. When I woke up near the end he was still carrying on about his “first speech to the nation and the world.” Hence I assume I missed very little in the restful interlude.
On Monday the stock market responded to all this Noise, by the Dow dropping 300 points and settling well below 7000 for the first time in more than a decade. My only stock market prediction in this light was the 7500 barrier, which I forecast for Inauguration Day. That had to wait a couple of weeks until the President unveiled his stimulus plan to change the world and to save everything from everybody. But what is a couple of weeks when we all are having so much fun guessing what governmental faux pas will occur next.
With all that good news, around the world the dollar had somewhat of a rally against other currencies showing, I guess, that America remains the economic safe haven in a rapidly deteriorating world. The good thing about the American media is that they are so megalomaniac we really don’t know how bad things are on the rest of the Western Front.
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That is what the Bible calls basically the “unforgivable sin.” Of course we really don’t believe in sin, especially within ourselves, so when it all falls apart, we are completely without the discernment to understand what is and has happened. If that is not a classic faux pas, I do not know what is.
So when President Obama spoke a week ago Tuesday, the speech was so filled with platitudes and generalities that really there was nothing of substance which one might disagree. Furthermore there was a complete disconnect from the outlined shining city on a hill, contrasted with the reality quagmire in the valley of current remorse.
On Thursday in outlining his budget for the next fiscal year, the President kicked up his liberal agenda more than a notch or two, essentially turning his vision of New Deal programs into prescriptions for financial disaster to those who believe in any concept of free market enterprise. From that budget outline it is clear that his Administration wants to turn this crisis-catastrophe into an opportunity to completely make free market enterprise subservient to centralized government planning and control.
On Saturday at the Conservative Political Action Conference, talk show personality Rush Limbaugh, by adding an hour to a programmed twenty-minute speech turned a hoped thoughtful rebuttal to the Obama vision for America, into the opportunity for about an hour nap. When I woke up near the end he was still carrying on about his “first speech to the nation and the world.” Hence I assume I missed very little in the restful interlude.
On Monday the stock market responded to all this Noise, by the Dow dropping 300 points and settling well below 7000 for the first time in more than a decade. My only stock market prediction in this light was the 7500 barrier, which I forecast for Inauguration Day. That had to wait a couple of weeks until the President unveiled his stimulus plan to change the world and to save everything from everybody. But what is a couple of weeks when we all are having so much fun guessing what governmental faux pas will occur next.
With all that good news, around the world the dollar had somewhat of a rally against other currencies showing, I guess, that America remains the economic safe haven in a rapidly deteriorating world. The good thing about the American media is that they are so megalomaniac we really don’t know how bad things are on the rest of the Western Front.
Read More...